Three models that turn a campaign into a decision
The values below are demonstration baselines. Replace them with numbers from your campaign and test payback, runway or the counterfactual immediately.
Domain Payback: how many months the building needs
Enter only the new building level's marginal monthly income, construction delay, ownership horizon and flow-loss risk.
The model does not price military modifiers or other non-cash utility. Keep them in a separate judgement layer.
Inputs and the result stay in this browser. Each variant is saved separately.
Start the war now or preserve cash?
Compare three cash paths to the same end date: act now, postpone the added commitment or keep existing commitments. Check the reserve at every step, including the upfront payment.
Enter valid numbers. Periods must be whole numbers and the horizon must be 1 to 600. Results are hidden until then.
Income needed to act now
What changes in this check
Only income from the first period changes. Your entered future income change, timing and all costs stay in place. This is a budget condition for acting now.
| Scenario | Cash at target | Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Act now | - | - |
| Postpone | - | - |
| Keep existing commitments | - | - |
Delaying moves the whole added commitment, including its upfront payment. It applies only to actions you can postpone. An unavoidable crisis or succession cannot be rescheduled.
Show the cash paths and calculation order
Row 0 is cash immediately after paying to act now. Each period then adds income and subtracts expenses. A delayed action is paid after the chosen number of complete periods; added upkeep starts in the next period. Equality with the reserve is allowed. Intra-period income and expense timing is not modeled.
| Month | Act now | Postpone | Keep existing commitments |
|---|
After playing, reopen the saved calculation, replace cash and flow with observed values and shorten the horizon to the remaining turns or months.
Inputs and the result stay in this browser. Each variant is saved separately.
Can the treasury absorb transition costs?
Compare three cash paths to the same end date: act now, postpone the added commitment or keep existing commitments. Check the reserve at every step, including the upfront payment.
Enter valid numbers. Periods must be whole numbers and the horizon must be 1 to 600. Results are hidden until then.
Income needed to act now
What changes in this check
Only income from the first period changes. Your entered future income change, timing and all costs stay in place. This is a budget condition for acting now.
| Scenario | Cash at target | Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Act now | - | - |
| Postpone | - | - |
| Keep existing commitments | - | - |
Delaying moves the whole added commitment, including its upfront payment. It applies only to actions you can postpone. An unavoidable crisis or succession cannot be rescheduled.
Show the cash paths and calculation order
Row 0 is cash immediately after paying to act now. Each period then adds income and subtracts expenses. A delayed action is paid after the chosen number of complete periods; added upkeep starts in the next period. Equality with the reserve is allowed. Intra-period income and expense timing is not modeled.
| Month | Act now | Postpone | Keep existing commitments |
|---|
After playing, reopen the saved calculation, replace cash and flow with observed values and shorten the horizon to the remaining turns or months.
Inputs and the result stay in this browser. Each variant is saved separately.
Decision examples for your campaign
Start with the question, then change the numbers
Six entry cases route into three models. Every baseline is editable and never presented as official game economy.
Will the next building pay back during this reign?
The model returns risk-adjusted income, payback month and horizon ROI.
Can the treasury fund a long war?
Wartime burn, one-off cost and reserve become one cash-flow test.
Can the treasury absorb costs after succession?
Test your starting treasury against one-off costs, added upkeep and an income change.
Should I build where another line may inherit?
A risk haircut reduces building value without invented precision.
How does new men-at-arms outflow change runway?
Change new outflow and compare post-war cash with the reserve target.
What is already known about Silk & Silver?
Confirmed scope only, with no invented formulas before live release.