Start with the question, then change the numbers
Six entry cases route into three models. Every baseline is editable and never presented as official game economy.
Will the next building pay back during this reign?
The model returns risk-adjusted income, payback month and horizon ROI.
Can the treasury fund a long war?
Wartime burn, one-off cost and reserve become one cash-flow test.
What buffer will the heir actually receive?
Transition cost and temporary outflow are deducted before the transfer.
Should I build where another line may inherit?
A risk haircut reduces building value without invented precision.
How does new men-at-arms outflow change runway?
Change new outflow and compare post-war cash with the reserve target.
What is already known about Silk & Silver?
Confirmed scope only, with no invented formulas before live release.
Three models that turn a campaign into a decision
The values below are demonstration baselines. Replace them with numbers from your campaign and test payback, runway or the counterfactual immediately.
Domain Payback: how many months the building needs
Enter only the new building level's marginal monthly income, construction delay, ownership horizon and flow-loss risk.
The model does not price military modifiers or other non-cash utility. Keep them in a separate judgement layer.
War Chest: will the treasury survive the war
Separate peaceful expenses from new wartime outflow, add one-off cost and set the reserve that cannot be spent.
When net flow is positive, runway is infinite inside this simple model. That is not a guarantee of victory.
Succession Buffer: how much liquidity the heir receives
Treasury grows through current net flow, then absorbs transition outflow, one-off crisis cost and the required heir reserve.
New outflow is the temporary transition cost: gifts, raised forces, mercenaries or another stress case.