Spread is only the first filter
Five output units at 225 gold create 1,125 gold of gross revenue against 825 gold of reagents. The apparent gap is 300, but an Auction House sale carries a cut and an unsuccessful listing adds deposit cost and delay.
Money Meta therefore separates gross revenue, net revenue, profit if sold and expected profit. The four numbers answer different questions and should not replace each other.
Sell-through determines a sensible batch
Sale probability does not make unsold goods worthless, but it turns part of the investment into working capital. Gold tied up in bags or another listing cannot fund the next recipe now.
When a twenty-craft batch sells only partially, inventory at risk becomes a separate constraint. Positive unit margin is not permission to scale without a limit.
A rule before Craft All
Check break-even price first. Add observed sell-through and use a discovery batch that cannot lock the entire bank. Increase the next batch only after the previous one converts to cash.
The model does not forecast a specific realm price. It shows the price, fee and sale-speed conditions where the decision stops creating value.
Replace the baseline with your inputs and get an answer for your scenario.
Data note. Every numeric example is a transparent baseline scenario. It is not presented as official publisher data and can be recalculated in the linked tool.