Three models that turn a campaign into a decision
The values below are demonstration baselines. Replace them with numbers from your campaign and test payback, runway or the counterfactual immediately.
Building Payback: will the building return its gold
Enter actual cost, income delta, construction delay, horizon and the risk of losing the flow. The model assumes no universal faction values.
The risk haircut is a scenario assumption, not a hidden game formula.
Inputs and the result stay in this browser. Each variant is saved separately.
Recruit now or postpone?
Compare three cash paths to the same end date: act now, postpone the added commitment or keep existing commitments. Check the reserve at every step, including the upfront payment.
Enter valid numbers. Periods must be whole numbers and the horizon must be 1 to 600. Results are hidden until then.
Income needed to act now
What changes in this check
Only income from the first period changes. Your entered future income change, timing and all costs stay in place. This is a budget condition for acting now.
| Scenario | Cash at target | Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Act now | - | - |
| Postpone | - | - |
| Keep existing commitments | - | - |
Delaying moves both the recruitment payment and the start of added upkeep. The new army is unavailable until then. The same end date does not imply the same military outcome.
Show the cash paths and calculation order
Row 0 is cash immediately after paying to act now. Each period then adds income and subtracts expenses. A delayed action is paid after the chosen number of complete periods; added upkeep starts in the next period. Equality with the reserve is allowed. Intra-period income and expense timing is not modeled.
| Turn | Act now | Postpone | Keep existing commitments |
|---|
After playing, reopen the saved calculation, replace cash and flow with observed values and shorten the horizon to the remaining turns or months.
Inputs and the result stay in this browser. Each variant is saved separately.
Sack vs Occupy: immediate payout or future flow
Options A and B each receive immediate value, recurring value, delay and risk. Enter values from the actual settlement screen.
Non-cash strategic value can be added to an option's immediate value and should be treated as judgement.
Inputs and the result stay in this browser. Each variant is saved separately.
Decision examples for your campaign
Start with the question, then change the numbers
Six entry cases route into three models. Every baseline is editable and never presented as official game economy.
Will the income building pay back before the next major war?
The model returns risk-adjusted payback, horizon net value and ROI.
Can I recruit it now without breaking the reserve?
Cash at target separates an affordable purchase from sustainable upkeep.
Which option is worth more across 12 turns?
Both options are compared with delay and recurring-income risk.
Should I invest in an unstable frontier?
A risk haircut shows when attractive income stops paying for capital lock-up.
How much burn can the treasury carry to the objective?
The model calculates maximum sustainable outflow and safe runway.
How should the reserve change against more active AI?
Raise horizon, new outflow and reserve to stress-test the case.